Apple’s Evolution

Horace Dedlu of Asymco notes that 65% of Apple’s sales revenue comes from iOS products that did not exist three-and-a-half years ago. And the Mac foundation appears to offer a solid and expanding base.

The Daily… Hmm….

Okay, I’m trying The Daily on the iPad free for two weeks.

Never thought I’d subscribe to a Murdoch publication. Probably won’t. But it’s intriguing to see what a daily designed for the platform can do.

It’s a graphically flashy tabloid with content that’s derivative &/or trivial. Pages and pages of gossip and sports… but a nice inaugural cover with an Egyptian democrat astride one of the lions of the Kasr Al Nil Bridge.

The Daily’s own Web site doesn’t show all its content. But this New York Times Bits Blog points to an independent tumblr site that does. Wonder how long that will last.

It also seems a bit buggy in that it often needs to be started two or three times before it runs.

iPad Reviews…

It appears that Apple handed out scads of iPads to reviewers weeks ago with the understanding that the reviews could not appear until today.

Eric Savitz at Barrons rounds up the critics so I don’t have to.

He missed the one I find the most interesting so far: English actor and writer Stephen Fry writing in Time about his visit to Apple and his interviews with Schiller, Ive and Jobs.

photo by Marco Grob for Time

The iPad as a learning machine?

Inside Higher Ed reports that Seton Hill University will be the first to give Apple iPads to all its students.

A small Catholic liberal arts college in Greensburg, PA, Seton Hill’s Mac-centric Griffin Technology Advantage Program, will also give a 13-inch MacBook to each of its incoming freshmen.

I’ve been wondering which university would be first with the iPad – and how long it will take the text book publishers to figure out the economics of the iPad for the college student market.

The first question’s answered and the second will be soon.

Daring Fireball: Generals’ War

John Gruber, with good sources at Google as well as Apple, revisits his earlier article on “the escalating contention” between the companies and finds that the engineers at both find it “weird.” But he doesn’t doubt, in either article, that the bad blood is real – and the rivalry will only increase as the two firms both focus on the post-PC markets and revenues of mobile computing.

Daring Fireball: Generals’ War

Wired: How the Tablet Will Change the World

Steven Levy’s cover essay on the iPad hedges his admiration of the curated environment of the app store vs the potential of Google’s open cloud approach. 

Somewhat more interesting are the short pieces by 13 writers, mostly with tech or futurist cred (Martha Stewart?), most of whm see a dramatic shift in the computing world as tablet computing (not necessarily the iPad) develops.

Rude comments by tablet and iPad skeptics abound below each article.

The iPad will sell well; it will be especially popular with children and older people. What I’m eager to see and can’t predict is what it will lead to – the ecosystem it creates. Some of these essays hint at that; none really seems to capture it, which is hardly surprising.

Wired: How the Tablet Will Change the World

Business strength for the iPad?

Apple watcher Jason Schwarz at TheStreet.com, after testing the iPad, believes Apple will sell 10 million of them in the first year.

Here’s why:

Nobody is talking about the iPad as a must-have business device but that is exactly what it is. Anyone who previously relied on a notepad or clipboard will adopt the iPad…. Think of all the real estate agents and other salesmen who operate at point of sale.

There’s more. And naturally Schwarz’s post drew skeptical comment. But now the iPad’s being tried outside of Apple’s labs, people find it has uses far beyond those the rumor mills were generating before folks got there hands on one.

Designers and artists – already a Mac constituency – will buy them to show their portfolios. Ad reps will use them with potential clients. If businesses discover it really is a productivity tool and start buying in bulk, 10 million in year one becomes almost conceivable.

Later update: Over at Seeking Alpha, where Schwarz posts regularly, his first comments on the iPad predicted sales of 5 million units in the first year. While Schwarz is long on Apple, and some people say he’s less credible for that, he seems more perceptive than most on exactly how the company still thinks different.

Dept. of Corrections and Amplifications

With reference to this iPad post last week, a regular reader writes:

Actually, there was an iTunes before the iPod – iTunes came out January 2001, the first iPod was released October 2001. And I make this point not just to be a nitpicky bastard, but because I think it’s really important to understanding why the iPod succeeded.

iTunes allowed the iPod to offload complex functionality to software running somewhere else, whereas all its competitors needed UI for things like adding music to the device. It wasn’t just that their UI was worse, it was there was so much more of it.

And I should probably have noted that about 75 percent of those three billion app-downloading transactions involved zero money changing hands.

That said, I’m still hoping for a few armchairs at the Apple Store on W. 67th St. so customers can replicate the living room experience of just sitting comfortably with the device for a few minutes.